Monty Hall
Perhaps the most famous puzzle in probability
is the Monty Hall problem.
It's based on the old game show called
"Let's Make a Deal".
You are given the choice of three doors.
Behind one door is a big prize.
Behind the other doors are goats.
You choose a door.
The door stays closed.
Monty Hall, the game show host,
knows what's behind all of the doors.
He opens one of the two remaining doors,
always showing you a goat.
Then he asks:
Do you want to stick with your first choice
or switch to the last remaining door?
What do you do?
Most people think that your odds of winning are
always one-third no matter what you do.
But this is not true.
Probability theory shows that if you switch,
your odds of winning actually double.
Instead of your odds being one-third if you stay,
they are two-thirds if you switch.
Dissociation is a lot like this problem,
except the rules of probability don't apply.
8 Comments
Leave a new comment
I watched that show when I was a kid. Loved that part of it in particular. I'm a "sure thing" person, I would have stayed. Dissociation is quite different. Dissociating means I win every time because they only come out to handle what I cannot, so it's a win win. But even winning has it's drawbacks.
Ivory, Thanks! I am so glad dissociation works that way for you. For me, dissociation can often lead to lack of safety.
Hmmm. Probability was the one class I never quite got even though I have a degree in honors math. Is it possible, instead of choosing, to have both? In other words, is cooperation rather than competition possible within the system?
Saw your other post and my heart goes out to you. I hope you are finding ways to feel and be safe.
Hi April. Well, there is no right way to think about this. I didn't really post my interpretation because I didn't want to bias anything, plus I can think about this in so many ways. I just wanted to see if others wanted to think a bit! I like thinking about it in terms of cooperation. And thanks for the kind words about my previous post. Yes, I'm in the hospital. This little piece of writing came out of an "expressive writing" group where the directive was "Write about a door". I was going to make it one of those descriptive dark and broody kind of pieces, but then the part of me who likes math thought of this... thought it would make a point and have deep meaning for me, but mostly go over everyone else. And most of all it would be safe to write and read out loud. I had to share it here!
The more I think about this piece of writing, the more I see in it... Some within feel the hopelessness of having to make a choice and fearing/knowing that decision would be wrong... Some don't understand it and want the answer - with the answer being your interpretation Paul... Some see it as word games... Some relate the role of Monty to an abuser - decide and Monty shall play games by switching the position of the goat so you will always lose... Some see the piece as it relates to dissociation for them...
I'm glad you are in a place where you can be helped to heal and get back to a sense of safety.
Take care,
Michelle
Michelle. Yes, I think when we allow ourselves to be open to experiences where there are no right solutions, then this is when we learn to heal.
I think this is very profound and truthful.
Good and healing thoughts to you.
Kate
Kate. Coming from you, this means a lot. For reference, it was written while in the depths of dissociation.